Six months of stock made to a forecast that changed

A customer forecasts monthly volumes and calls off against them. The converter produces ahead to guarantee availability. When actual demand falls short, the stock sits.

Whose risk is it

Commercially it is usually the converter's, because nothing was agreed about what happens to stock produced against a forecast that did not materialise. It is worth agreeing, and the moment to do it is at contract rather than when the warehouse is full.

Ageing per customer

Finished goods reported as a single figure hide the concentration. Broken down by customer and age, one or two accounts usually account for most of it, and that is a specific conversation rather than a general concern.

Producing to the trend, not the promise

Where call-off has run consistently below forecast, scheduling to the actual rate rather than the stated one protects the converter without any renegotiation. It requires only that someone is comparing the two.