Worked scenario
Fifty joiners in January, eleven still there in June
A promotion measured on joins is measured on its cheapest outcome, and discounted intakes frequently retain worse than full-price ones.
3 min read
A January offer produces a strong intake. The number is reported, the promotion is judged a success, and it is repeated the following year.
Sign-ups are an input
What matters is what those members are worth. A heavily discounted intake that retains poorly can cost more in servicing and equipment pressure than it generates.
Tag at joining
Recording which offer brought a member in costs one field at sign-up and is impossible to reconstruct later. Without it, cohort analysis cannot be done at all.
The comparison to run
Revenue per member over six months, by cohort, against the cost of acquiring that cohort. Centres that run this frequently find their best members came from referral rather than from the promotion that gets the budget.
What changes
- Joiners tagged with the offer that brought them in
- Retention and revenue tracked by cohort over months
- Promotion cost compared with realised revenue, not sign-ups
- Offers repeated on evidence rather than on last year's headline
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